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Differential responses of Kashmir Himalayan threatened medicinal plants to anticipated climate change
- Javaid M Dad, Irfan Rashid
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- Journal:
- Environmental Conservation / Volume 49 / Issue 1 / March 2022
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 10 February 2022, pp. 33-41
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As natural and anthropogenic forcings impel anticipated climate change, their effects on biodiversity and environmental sustainability are evident. A fundamental question that is often overlooked is: which changes in climate will cause the redistribution or extinction of threatened species? Here, we mapped and modelled the current and future geographical distributions of the four threatened medicinal plants – Aconitum heterophyllum Wall. ex Royle, Fritillaria cirrhosa D.Don, Meconopsis aculeata Royle and Rheum webbianum Royle – in Kashmir Himalaya using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. Species occurrence records were collated from detailed field studies carried out between the years 2010 and 2020. Four general circulation models for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios were chosen for future range changes over periods around 2050 (average for 2041–2060) and 2070 (average of 2061–2080). Notable differences existed between species in their responses to predictive environmental variables of temperature and precipitation. Increase in the most suitable habitat, except for A. heterophyllum and R. webbianum, were evident across Himalayan Mountain regions, while the Pir Panjal mountain region exhibited a decrease for all four species under future climate change scenarios. This study exemplifies the idiosyncratic response of narrow-range plants to expected future climate change and highlights conservation implications.
11 - An Analysis of the Remittances Market in Pakistan
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- By Rashid Amjad, Lahore School of Economics, M. Irfan, Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, G. M. Arif, Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad
- Edited by Rashid Amjad, Shahid Javed Burki, National University of Singapore
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- Book:
- Pakistan
- Published online:
- 05 May 2015
- Print publication:
- 13 April 2015, pp 280-310
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Summary
Introduction
Remittances to developing countries sent through official channels were estimated at USD 406 billion in 2012 (World Bank, 2012). This represents a growth of 6.5 per cent over 2011 and is projected to rise by 8 per cent in 2013 and 10 per cent in 2014. Current remittance flows are over three times the amount of official development assistance (World Bank, 2012). In Pakistan, remittances through official channels have grown from just around USD 1.5 billion in 1997/98 to slightly over USD 13 billion in 2011/12 (State Bank of Pakistan, n.d.; see also Table 11.1). In the first six months (July– December 2012), they were slightly over USD 7 billion—an increase of 12 per cent over the corresponding period in the previous year (July–December 2011).
An earlier study (Amjad, Arif, & Irfan, 2012) analyzes the possible reasons for this manifold increase and in its preliminary findings suggests that the increase is primarily due to (i) a shift from unofficial (and unrecorded) channels (hawala) to official channels; (ii) an increase in the number of migrants abroad; and (iii) a rise in migrants' skill levels, resulting in higher wages and incomes abroad. The study also makes the important observation that the inflow of remittances is not just from Pakistani workers abroad but from the larger Pakistani diaspora, many of whom may have acquired nationality of their country of residence. The study also infers that official remittance flows also reflect shifts in the diaspora's savings and assets to their home country.
Amjad et al. (2012) also attempt a rough estimate of the volume of remittances coming through both official and unofficial channels. This is based on estimates of the size of the Pakistani diaspora, as reported by different sources, as well as the average volume of remittances sent, based on recent survey data. The range of these estimates suggests that total remittances could be as high as 180 per cent of official recorded remittances.